Santiment, a well-known cryptocurrency data analysis firm, has identified an important on-chain data signal for a substantial price increase for Bitcoin. The firm stated that the presence of “fear, uncertainty, and doubt” or FUD on social media at yearly highs, coupled with an important shift in the 30-day market value to realized value ratio, is an important signal for a substantial price increase for Bitcoin.
The news comes as Bitcoin struggles to hold its ground above the $70,000 mark. Analysts at Santiment stated that when the crowd shows signs of FUD, it can serve as the “fuel” to propel a contrarian price rebound.
Also Read: 90% of Bitcoin ETF Investors are Accumulating says BlackRock, Coinglass Data Validates the Claim
The Metric in Motion
The most prominent metric under scrutiny is the 30-day MVRV Ratio. This on-chain metric calculates the profit or loss of all Bitcoin transactions over the past 30 days. When the metric “starts moving” into negative territory, it signals a substantial loss among the Bitcoin address crowd.
“In the history of the crypto market, the best time to buy has always been when the crowd was scared or at their most fearful. We’re seeing a classic case here where fear has dominated the number of bulls in the market, even though we’re seeing signs that the price is starting to recover.”
On-chain data indeed shows that while retail interest has dwindled, “whales” or large-scale investors have continued to quietly build up their holdings. In fact, these investors have reportedly accumulated over 34,000 BTC in the last two weeks alone, thus taking up the slack from the selling pressure caused by the panic-selling of retail traders.
Market Context and Price Action
This is after a period of stagnation, during which the cryptocurrency has been experiencing difficulties in breaking the $72,000 mark. According to the data from CoinMarketCap and TradingView, the price is still within a descending channel from the all-time high. However, the selling pressure is slowing down.
The price on March 13, 2026, is $71,450, a rise of 8% from its lowest point in the week. The price increase has also coincided with a shift in Cumulative Volume Delta. Cumulative Volume Delta is a metric that measures the difference between buy and sell transactions. For the first time in a few weeks, CVD has gone positive for Bitcoin’s major trading platforms, such as Coinbase and Binance.
Why Sentiment Matters Now
The current market cycle for Bitcoin has been driven by institutions investing in spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, according to Santiment’s data, social sentiment is the best predictor of local bottoms. The company’s “Social Volume” and “Weighted Sentiment” tools have found that the metrics for “crash,” “sell,” and “scam” have been at an all-time high for the cryptocurrency earlier this month. In previous cycles, such as the 2022 mid-cycle crash or the 2023 banking crisis, rallies of 20% or more have been seen within 30 days following the sentiment profile.
Expert Outlook for 2026
Although the short-term trend for the price of the cryptocurrency is a positive one, the market analysts have different opinions on the trend for 2026. According to the Metcalfe Value model, the price of the Bitcoin currency is undervalued compared to the growth of the network. The model indicates a 96% probability for a positive return in the future, one year away.
“The metric moving now is the first step,” said a senior on-chain analyst. “If we see this sentiment shift alongside continued ETF inflows, the way to $100,000 becomes much clearer.”
According to Santiment, $62,800 is the “line in the sand” investors should focus on for the current trend. A failure to break past this level would mean that the current trend is invalid. On the other hand, a breakout past the $73,500 level would mean that the current downtrend is over. The market is still digesting the latest macroeconomic data, such as the latest Federal Reserve moves regarding interest rates. This could be the final ingredient for liquidity.
Related: Central Bank Interest Rates
Snapshot of the Current Market
| Metric | Current Status | Signal |
| Bitcoin Price | $71,450 | Recovering |
| 30-Day MVRV | -5% | Accumulation Zone |
| Social Sentiment | Extreme Fear | Bullish Divergence |
| Whale Activity | High | Strong Accumulation |
Disclaimer: BFM Times acts as a source of information for knowledge purposes and does not claim to be a financial advisor. Kindly consult your financial advisor before investing.
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