Key Insights
- The CEO of Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead, estimates that in two to three years, various regional blocs will want to purchase 1 million Bitcoin each.
- Morehead believes that it is madness that countries such as China hoard a millennium of savings in assets that can be canceled by U.S. authorities, and that a switch to Bitcoin is unavoidable.
- The transition is presented as an arms race in which countries want to be free of government interference and domination by the U.S. Treasury.
- Although 2025 was volatile with a high of $126,080 reached by Bitcoin and then fell, Morehead is long-term bullish, citing institutional inflows of over $100 billion.
- Morehead pegs the mathematical scarcity of Bitcoin as a better option to gold in the next decade, with an annual monetary debasement of about 3%.
- Dan Morehead, a billionaire, believes that China has a 1 million Bitcoin target.
The Great Reserve Pivot: Dan Morehead, a billionaire, believes that China has a 1 million Bitcoin target.
The world financial environment is about to undergo a radical reorganization that may turn Bitcoin into not a speculative asset, but the key to national security. The billionaire founder and CEO of Pantera Capital, Dan Morehead, has made an audacious prediction: the world is about to enter a new arms race over Bitcoin, and the world’s superpowers are preparing to hold 1 million BTC to protect their national wealth.
In a speech at the Ondo Summit, Morehead described a situation in which the weaponization of the U.S. dollar compels non-aligned countries to reconsider their reserve policies. He cited the simple dangers of having large national savings deposited in conventional assets that are subject to the whims of the U.S. Treasury. “It is crazier than crazy to have a thousand years of your life savings locked up in an asset that can be canceled by Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury,” Morehead said. “It is ridiculous. It is much smarter to purchase Bitcoin.”
The 1M BTC Milestone
Morehead says the world is heading to a time when three or four regional blocs or countries will be competing to have 1 million Bitcoins each. Currently, 1 million BTC is about 4.76% of the total 21 million coins that will ever be produced.
Although the United States has already gotten headlines with talk of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the UAE has already been busy exposing itself to digital assets, Morehead is of the opinion that the really big change will be when the so-called hostile countries, such as China, discover the strategic vulnerability of their existing holdings.
Performance in the market and institutional momentum
This forecast is made when the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a major change. Bitcoin entered a distribution stage after hitting a historic high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025. By early April 2026, the prices have settled in the range of $66,000-$68,000. The BTC/USD 1-year chart is shown in the table below:
Although this is a 46% decline from the all-time high, Morehead describes the present environment as a healthy adjustment process. He points out that digital treasury firms and listed ETFs have already collectively purchased more than $100 billion in crypto assets, which is a level of institutional participation that did not exist in past cycles.
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The 10 Years to Come
The thesis of Morehead stretches further than geopolitical maneuvering to the realms of pure macroeconomics. He claims that the debasement of fiat currency at a rate of 3% per annum is a mathematical imperative to preserve wealth in fixed-supply assets.
“In ten years, Bitcoin will overwhelmingly surpass gold,” Morehead predicted. He pointed out that, although gold has been doing well of late, Bitcoin outperforms the precious metal on all technical measures: it is more divisible, more portable, and its scarcity is mathematically assured and not geographically constrained.
As of now, the median investment in Bitcoin by institutional investors is zero. Morehead sees this as the final bullish sign and is of the opinion that the arms race is in its most opportunistic stage.
Background: The Geopolitical Change
The discussion of sovereign Bitcoin reserves has become particularly popular after the 2024 U.S. election cycle, during which the concept of a national Bitcoin reserve has shifted out of the margins of crypto Twitter and into Congress. The plan to increase the number of BTC to 1 million in five years is preceded by the U.S. government holding about 210,000 BTC (mostly via seizures).
Assuming that the U.S. does as it threatens to do by using Bitcoin to cut national debt, other countries have a game-theory problem: either they too can be part of the pile, or they will be left out of a new digital currency system.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the current amount of Bitcoin that China owns?
Although the Chinese government officially prohibits crypto trading among its nationals, it is believed to be among the largest Bitcoin holders in the world, as a result of previous seizures of its activities, such as the PlusToken scam. But they are not now considered a strategic reserve.
Who is Scott Bessent?
Although the Chinese government officially prohibits crypto trading among its nationals, it is believed to be among the largest Bitcoin holders in the world, as a result of previous seizures of its activities, such as the PlusToken scam. But they are not now considered a strategic reserve.
What is the value of 1 million Bitcoin?
A 1 million BTC holding is a controlling interest in the network, with only 21 million Bitcoin having ever been mined (and millions of Bitcoins have already been lost). With four blocs of 1 million BTC each, close to 20% of the total supply would be tied up in sovereign reserves, which would have a major effect on the liquidity and price of the market.
Has China officially reacted to these allegations?
The People’s Bank of China has not officially stated that it has a strategic reserve of Bitcoin. China is still working on its Digital Yuan (e-CNY), but market analysts believe there is a possibility of a secret hoard of Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge.
Disclaimer: BFM Times acts as a source of information for knowledge purposes and does not claim to be a financial advisor. Kindly consult your financial advisor before investing.
