- Bitcoin’s bottom hasn’t formed, says an analyst who predicted two major crashes, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 2026 MSTR share collapse.
- Paul Faulkner has worked with JPMorgan Chase and PwC in key leadership roles.
- Further, BitThumb, which worsened the current market crash, faces a $40 billion investigation.
- Shares of Strategy (MSTR) have fallen 67% since the October crash.
Frequently Read: Epstein was Deep into Crypto with Coinbase, ZCash, and Bitcoin, Failed to Trap Vitalik
Bitcoin Hasn’t Bottomed Yet
Bitcoin has crashed nearly 50% from its October 7, 2025, peak. The latest price at press time was $69,000, down from $72,000 a day earlier. The relief rally, which occurred over the last 48 hours, fizzled out sooner than expected, despite several market leaders calling it the shortest bear market.
Taking a look at the Bitcoin derivatives chart, we can deduce that the maximum pain point, which the market does not expect an expiry, is $69,000, where the price of Bitcoin currently lies.
This price suggests it will be hard for Bitcoin to cross $69,000 this week, as the highest number of expiry contracts are at this price. Further, the price isn’t expected to cross $78,000 by next week. This means that any recovery rally is unlikely to sustain for at least the next 15 days./h
Expert Highlights a Price Trap using Liquidity Heatmap
As per Paul Faulkner, ex-VP of JP Morgan and ex-Lead Consultant at PwC, the bottom is expected to be even lower as market liquidity indicates the crisis isn’t over. He adds that there is a persistent liquidity pool sitting at $60,000, which is ready to buy, and there is a selling pressure at $71k, which is ready to sell. Unless the upper liquidity (sellers) exhaust first, Bitcoin isn’t crossing $71k soon.
BitThumb Crisis Worsens
The BitThumb crisis, also known as the Paper Bitcoin Crisis, has worsened further.
The exchange is reportedly under investigation for more than $40 billion. South Korean authorities have been calling it a structural error.
Background to BitThumb Crisis
South Korean crypto exchange BitThumb inadvertently issued more than 600k Bitcoins to its users, even though it had only around 400k Bitcoins in all user deposits. Since the Bitcoins were issued internally, there was no way to verify them using a blockchain explorer.
As a result, there was a supply shock in the market. This supply shock created an artificial inflation in Bitcoin, and since the market was already in crisis mode, several users resorted to selling their funds, which further crashed Bitcoin.
Key Metric for Bottom Fishing
There is a key metric that would signal a bottom formation. These signals, when used properly, would help you avoid buying into a bull trap.
Max Pain or Expiring Call Options
Keeping an eye on Max Pain helps you gauge what levels Bitcoin will not cross, or at least what the market thinks that Bitcoin will not cross.
Max Pain is the total number of call and put options where, if the expiry occurs, the maximum number of traders will lose their options (the trade becomes zero). Now, the max pain is different for each expiry.
For the upcoming few expiries, here are the max pain levels:
- $69,000 for Feb 10
- $78,000 for Feb 13
- $85,000 for Feb 27
- $90,000 for March 27
Disclaimer: BFM Times acts as a source of information for knowledge purposes and does not claim to be a financial advisor. Kindly consult your financial advisor before investing.
